Vote-by-Mail Returns Indicate a Blue Wave

As the first day of early voting kicks off, early indicators suggest good news for Democrats. As seen in Politico Playbook, Florida will hit one million submitted absentee ballots today.

Current breakdowns show registered Democrats trailing Republicans in ballot returns by less than 6 percentage points, compared to a 14-point margin at this point in the 2014 midterms. Per Politico, the GOP margin has shrunk from 9.2 percentage points last Monday. We expect this margin to continue closing as largely Democratic counties begin in-person early voting today.

Key Points in VBM returns:

Democrats are over-performing in GOP base counties, and early indicators suggest that the Democrats have successfully courted new midterm voters – especially counties hit by Red Tide and Toxic Algae (Charlotte, Sarasota, St. John’s, Indian River, etc.).

Florida Democrats are redefining the General Election electorate. Nearly 20 percent of votes cast so far by registered Democrats were from voters who had never previously participated in a midterm election — “that number will rise as Democratic counties catch up to Republican counties in reporting ballot returns.”

Democrats hold a 4-point lead in returns from Hispanic voters, compared to GOP holding an 11 point lead in Hispanic VBM’s in 2014.

Read our full vote-by-mail analysis here.…

FDP Chair Terrie Rizzo

P.S. FROM TERRIE: BUT WE HAVE TO KEEP WORKING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN! Keep making those calls, knocking those doors, chasing VBM Ballots, working for candidates, and get out every single vote! EVERY VOTE WILL MATTER FOR THE BLUE WAVE TO BECOME A REALITY. PLEASE HELP!